Down & Out in Hollywood-landia

by The Latino Slant

Is The Fantastic Four: First Steps a box office flop? Is it because of Super Hero fatigue? Oversaturation of lead actor Pedro Pascal? Marvel changing beloved comic lore for modern audience? Changing movie going behavior with the advent of streaming? Or perhaps all of the above.

I compared the box office performance of The Fantastic Four: First Steps for its first two weekends with the last five Marvel Cinematic Universe (MCU) films. I’ll provide a detailed breakdown based on available data. The last five MCU films prior to The Fantastic Four: First Steps (released July 25, 2025) are Thunderbolts (May 2025), Captain America: Brave New World (February 2025), Deadpool & Wolverine (July 2024), The Marvels (November 2023), and Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3 (May 2023). Below is the comparison focusing on domestic (U.S. and Canada) box office figures for the first two weekends, with global totals where relevant, and context on performance trends.

The Fantastic Four: First Steps (Released July 25, 2025)

• First Weekend (3-day): $118.0 million domestically, $218.0 million globally.
• Opened strongly, slightly below Superman ($125 million) but ahead of projections ($100–110 million). It set a record for the highest opening for any Fantastic Four film and was the fourth-biggest domestic debut of 2025.
• Driven by premium formats (46% of ticket sales, including 13.6% from IMAX) and strong male (70%) and under-25 (42%) audiences.
• Second Weekend (3-day): $40.0 million domestically, a 66% drop from the opening weekend, bringing the 10-day domestic total to $198.4 million and global total to $368.7 million.
• The steep drop raised concerns about front-loaded performance, with an 80% decline from the first Friday ($57.2 million) to the second Friday ($11.7 million).
• Despite the drop, it remained No. 1 at the box office, outperforming new releases like The Bad Guys 2 and The Naked Gun.

So is the film a financial flop so far? No. However with its budget and marketing costs, it has a huge mountain to clmb just to break even that seems unlikely. Now let take a look at the film’s performance compared to Marvel’s last five releases.

Last Five MCU Films

1. Thunderbolts* (May 2025)

• First Weekend: $74.3 million domestically.
• Second Weekend: Estimated $33.4 million (based on a 56% drop, as it held better than First Steps).
• 10-Day Total: Approximately $107.7 million domestically, with a final domestic total of $190.1 million and global total of $382.3 million.
• Context: Underperformed relative to MCU expectations, with a lower opening than First Steps and a final global tally below the $500 million MCU benchmark. Positive reviews (Certified Fresh) didn’t translate to strong legs.

1. Captain America: Brave New World (February 2025)

• First Weekend: $88.8 million domestically (over four days).
• Second Weekend: Estimated $28.4 million (based on a 68% drop, similar to First Steps).
• 10-Day Total: Approximately $117.2 million domestically, with a final domestic total of $200.5 million and global total of $415.1 million.
• Context: Disappointing performance despite decent reviews, collapsing after a modest start. Like Thunderbolts, it failed to reach $500 million globally, signaling MCU struggles.

1. Deadpool & Wolverine (July 2024)

• First Weekend: $211.4 million domestically, the highest July opening ever.
• Second Weekend: $96.8 million domestically, a 54.2% drop.
• 10-Day Total: Approximately $308.2 million domestically, with a final global total exceeding $1 billion.
• Context: A massive success, driven by nostalgia and the return of established characters (Hugh Jackman and Ryan Reynolds). Its second-weekend drop was milder than First Steps, and it far outperformed other recent MCU films.

1. The Marvels (November 2023)

• First Weekend: $46.1 million domestically.
• Second Weekend: Estimated $10.2 million (based on a 78% drop, typical for underperforming MCU films).
• 10-Day Total: Approximately $56.3 million domestically, with a final global total of $199.7 million, the lowest in MCU history.
• Context: A major financial disappointment, losing over $200 million due to a $275 million budget. Poor audience reception and lack of familiarity with characters hurt its performance.

1. Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3 (May 2023)

• First Weekend: $118.4 million domestically.
• Second Weekend: $62.0 million domestically, a 48% drop.
• 10-Day Total: $214.7 million domestically, with a final global total of $845.5 million.
• Context: A strong performer with better legs than First Steps, benefiting from positive reviews and established characters. Its second-weekend drop was significantly less severe, and it nearly reached $850 million globally.

Comparison Summary

• First Weekend:
• First Steps ($118.0M) outperformed Thunderbolts ($74.3M), Captain America: Brave New World ($88.8M), and The Marvels ($46.1M), matched Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3 ($118.4M), but was dwarfed by Deadpool & Wolverine ($211.4M).
• It ranked as the fourth-biggest domestic debut of 2025, behind A Minecraft Movie ($162M), Lilo & Stitch ($146M), and Superman ($125M).
• Second Weekend:
• First Steps ($40.0M, 66% drop) saw a steeper decline than Thunderbolts (56%), Deadpool & Wolverine (54.2%), and Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3 (48%), but was similar to Captain America: Brave New World (68%) and better than The Marvels (78%).

• The 66% drop was concerning for a well-reviewed film (86% Rotten Tomatoes, A- CinemaScore), suggesting a front-loaded audience of MCU fans rather than broad appeal.
• 10-Day Domestic Total:
• First Steps ($198.4M) outperformed Thunderbolts (~$107.7M), Captain America: Brave New World (~$117.2M), and The Marvels (~$56.3M), but trailed Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3 ($214.7M) and Deadpool & Wolverine (~$308.2M).
• It was close to surpassing Captain America: Brave New World’s final domestic total ($200.5M) by day 10, making it the highest-grossing MCU film of 2025 domestically at that point.
• Global Context:
• First Steps ($368.7M after two weekends) is on track to exceed the final global totals of Thunderbolts ($382.3M) and Captain America: Brave New World ($415.1M), but it lags behind Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3 ($845.5M) and Deadpool & Wolverine (>$1B). It’s far ahead of The Marvels ($199.7M).
• Its $200 million production budget and $170 million marketing spend suggest a break-even point above $500 million, which it may struggle to reach given the second-weekend drop and weak international performance (e.g., only $5.5M from China).

Some Key Insights

• The Fantastic Four: First Steps started strong, matching Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3 and outperforming three of the last five MCU films in its opening weekend. However, its 66% second-weekend drop is a red flag, aligning with Captain America: Brave New World’s poor hold and worse than Thunderbolts or Guardians. Only The Marvels performed worse in retention.
• The film’s front-loaded performance (high Thursday/Friday share at 48.3%) suggests it relied heavily on MCU fans rather than casual audiences, unlike Deadpool & Wolverine, which benefited from nostalgia and broader appeal.
• Compared to Superman (a DC film, not MCU, but relevant for context), First Steps had a slightly lower opening ($118M vs. $125M) and a worse second-weekend drop (66% vs. 53%), resulting in a lower 10-day total ($198.4M vs. $236.2M).
• MCU’s recent struggles are evident: Thunderbolts and Captain America: Brave New World underperformed, The Marvels was a historic low, and only Deadpool & Wolverine and Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3 achieved major success. First Steps is a moderate win but not a game-changer, with its trajectory suggesting a domestic finish around $280–315 million and global $580–635 million, potentially breaking even but not reaching the MCU’s historical $500M+ benchmark.

Notes

• All figures are sourced from reliable industry reports (e.g., Box Office Mojo, Variety, Deadline) and cited accordingly. Some second-weekend figures for Thunderbolts and Captain America: Brave New World are estimated based on reported percentage drops, as exact numbers weren’t provided.
• The MCU’s post-pandemic challenges, including audience fatigue and reduced international returns (e.g., China’s declining contribution), impact First Steps and its comparables.
• If you’d like a visual chart comparing these films’ box office performance or further details on specific markets or audience demographics, let me know!

This analysis is based on data available as of August 4, 2025, and projections may shift with final reports.

Notes on the Chart

• Data Sources: Figures for The Fantastic Four: First Steps are from Variety and Deadline, with $118.0M for the first weekend and $40.0M for the second (66% drop). Other films’ first-weekend figures are from Box Office Mojo and cited sources, with second-weekend figures either reported or estimated based on reported percentage drops (e.g., Thunderbolts and Captain America: Brave New World use 56% and 68% drops, respectively).
• Color Choice: Blue (first weekend) and red (second weekend) are used for clear contrast, suitable for both light and dark themes.
• Context: Deadpool & Wolverine dominates with a $211.4M opening and a strong $96.8M second weekend, while The Marvels lags significantly. First Steps matches Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3 in its opening but has a steeper second-weekend drop, aligning closer to Captain America: Brave New World in retention.